A few hours ago we learned that a Presidential order has been issued to close all schools and universities for three weeks – to stop the spread of swine flu. I just returned from the Philippines and was told by the health professionals there that none of us from Afghanistan were a danger, because there were no recorded cases of swine flu in Afghanistan. Zero. Nada.
So, what is going on? A few days ago, on Afghanistan television it was reported that an international aid worker (read "a foreigner") had gotten swine flu after eating a ham sandwich. Let us forget for a moment that this is an entirely air borne flu and one cannot get it from eating any kind of sandwich. What is more interesting is the timing of this little piece of news that has caught on like wild fire. It is curiously similar to those of George Bush's periodic declaration of "orange alert" - throwing the nation into panic about an impending terrorist attack. Any time bad news about the economy came up, poll numbers were down, another messy embarrassing news about corruption by one his best friends - ORANGE ALERT!!!! and the news media repeated the same mantra and the public quietened.
As a person working in the education sector, and as a person who manages two NGO's whose primary work is in the education sector, I am outraged by this decision. Schools were halted two months ago for elections and the teachers worked hard to make up the lost time. Now to make up THREE WEEKS of lost classes is, I believe, impossible. In Afghanistan, exams are held in November, results declared in early December, and then schools close for three months as winter settles in. I suppose one can push the exams back. However, if winter comes early and indications are that it is, it will not be possible.
So, what gives? Here is my take on what gives. A series of events, falling one behind the other like dominoes, may well be the reason for this ridiculous use of "swine flu" as an excuse to close down all schools and colleges for three weeks.
Event A: The second Presidential elections in the history of Afghanistan are held in August, 2009. President Karzai declares victory. The United Nations says, "not so fast", and the election commission settles down to review allegations of wide spread fraud.
Event B: As most Afghans, even the highly educated ones, publicly say "no" to a run-off election and just want to move on, the west finds itself between a rock and a hard place. As enough votes are tossed out to deny Karzai a majority, the west has to support a run-off. Otherwise, history might very well state that the west turned a blind eye to outright fraud and corruption in the election process.
Event C: While a run-off election is settled for November 7th, nothing is done to eliminate the root causes of the fraud claimed by Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, the key opponent to Karzai. No election commissioner or minister is removed from the process, and as far as I can see, no pressure by the west is put on Karzai to take action to prevent another round of fraud.
Event D: The Taliban vow to disrupt this new round of elections and in a brazen attack on a UN guest house kill 5 UN workers and injure 9 others. Two of the workers were working on the elections. Suddenly, the UN - bastion of fraud-free elections - loses its will to really get behind this run-off and evacuates all of its non-essential personnel. It also appears to have lost its will to really push for a second round of elections and is uttering phrases like, "we will support the people of Afghanistan and their wishes". Well, what they really wished for was NOT to have a run-off in the first place!!
And now the west, stymied in its attempts to make democracy happen overnight in Afghanistan is offering up canned statements like, "the United States remains committed to supporting the Afghan people in carrying out a constitutional electoral process". Whatever that means.
Event E: The pressure mounts on Dr. Abdullah and President Karzai to form a "unity" government. Someone should get whacked upside the head for coining such a ridiculous term. Obama and Hillary fought a bitter campaign, and Obama did not take on Hillary as his running mate!! So, why these two men who fought a very bitter campaign should now all of a sudden be expected to become all chummy beggars belief. Additionally, one of them is in power (neither Obama nor Hillary were the President), and the other accused him of all kinds of nasty stuff. And now they should share power? How will that be? And how can that be worked out in a short time frame?
Event F: Dr. Abdullah runs out of money and also realizes that the fraud machinery is still in existence and the likelihood of him winning is very slim. It is also possible that the attack on the UN may have made him pause and think about other violence that would sure unleash if the elections were to continue. So, he pulls out and asks for his people to be calm.
Event G: Now President Karzai is in a tough position. Dr. Abdullah has strong support and that base is bitterly disappointed. As is with change candidates, a lot of the base is the youth. Dr. Abdullah himself made his "I'm pulling out" speech near the area where several colleges are right next to each other. An interesting choice.
Conclusion: There is absolutely no telling what tomorrow will bring. Will there be an election on November 7th? And if so, who the heck is going to come out and risk life or finger to vote, when there is ONLY ONE candidate? What will Dr. Abdullah do in the next few weeks? What are Karzai's options? The pressure is intense on both men to share power - two easy words, but what does that look like? Afghanistan does not exactly have a grand history of men sharing power - if you know what I mean. Can these two men create history?
What about the wild card - the youth? Will they be placid spectators to this game, or will they simmer in discontent ready to explode into violent protests? In all honesty, it is very difficult to take the risk of the youth rioting on streets. So, Karzai and his administrative machine stoke this small piece of swine-flu-caused-by-ham-sandwich news, and close down the main source of youth gatherings - all in the name of - I want to take care of you and make sure that you don't get swine flu.
The Bush-Cheney team certainly taught the leadership here well. Using swine-flu as an excuse to close schools for three weeks also is a subtle way of saying - "these foreigners are causing our children to fall sick". Just like the Bush-Cheney team successfully used the "we must be afraid of the terrorists (foreigners)" technique to stop the masses from thinking in America, the administration here is using the same technique. Good teacher. Good student.
And while the children and the youth celebrate a surprise holiday, they remain too young to realize that the government just stole something from them - a hope for the future. I am the eternal optimist, and I hope the two men seize this moment in history, and do indeed figure out a way of sharing power, and create history - something that makes Afghans proud, the international community bow in respect, and the children see behavior they can aspire to.
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